INCERTO FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS THE BLACK SWAN THE BED OF PROCRUSTES ANTIFRAGILE

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Incerto 4 Book Bundle

Author : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
ISBN : 9780812997699
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 80.16 MB
Format : PDF, Docs
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series is an investigation of luck, uncertainty, probability, opacity, human error, risk, disorder, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand, in nonoverlapping and standalone books. All four volumes—Antifragile, The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, and the expanded edition of The Bed of Procrustes, updated with more than 50 percent new material—are now together in one ebook bundle. ANTIFRAGILE “Startling . . . richly crammed with insights, stories, fine phrases and intriguing asides.”—The Wall Street Journal Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, many things in life benefit from disorder, volatility, and turmoil. What Taleb has identified and calls “antifragile” is that category of things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better and better. What is crucial is that the antifragile loves errors, as it incurs small harm and large benefits from them. Spanning politics, urban planning, war, personal finance, economic systems, and medicine in an interdisciplinary and erudite style, Antifragile is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world. THE BLACK SWAN “[A book] that altered modern thinking.”—The Times (London) A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random and more predictable. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows that black swan events underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives, and yet we—especially the experts—are blind to them. FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS “[Fooled by Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-five theses were to the Catholic Church.”—Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? Fooled by Randomness is about luck: more precisely, about how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill—the markets—Fooled by Randomness is an irreverent, eye-opening, and endlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understood forces in our lives. THE BED OF PROCRUSTES “Taleb’s crystalline nuggets of thought stand alone like esoteric poems.”—Financial Times This collection of aphorisms and meditations expresses Taleb’s major ideas in ways you least expect. The Bed of Procrustes takes its title from Greek mythology: the story of a man who made his visitors fit his bed to perfection by either stretching them or cutting their limbs. With a rare combination of pointed wit and potent wisdom, Taleb plows through human illusions, contrasting the classical views of courage, elegance, and erudition against the modern diseases of nerdiness, philistinism, and phoniness.
Category: Business & Economics

Fooled By Randomness

Author : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
ISBN : 1588367673
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 68.92 MB
Format : PDF, ePub
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Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, and The Bed of Procrustes. “[Taleb is] Wall Street’s principal dissident. . . . [Fooled By Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-nine theses were to the Catholic Church.” –Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker Finally in paperback, the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about the markets and the world.This book is about luck: more precisely how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of business–Fooled by Randomness is an irreverent, iconoclastic, eye-opening, and endlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understood forces in all of our lives. From the Trade Paperback edition.
Category: Business & Economics

The Bed Of Procrustes

Author : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
ISBN : 9780679643685
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 61.35 MB
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With fifty percent more material than the hardcover, this expanded edition of The Bed of Procrustes is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, and Antifragile. By the author of the modern classic The Black Swan, this collection of aphorisms and meditations expresses his major ideas in ways you least expect. The Bed of Procrustes takes its title from Greek mythology: the story of a man who made his visitors fit his bed to perfection by either stretching them or cutting their limbs. It represents Taleb’s view of modern civilization’s hubristic side effects—modifying humans to satisfy technology, blaming reality for not fitting economic models, inventing diseases to sell drugs, defining intelligence as what can be tested in a classroom, and convincing people that employment is not slavery. Playful and irreverent, these aphorisms will surprise you by exposing self-delusions you have been living with but never recognized. With a rare combination of pointed wit and potent wisdom, Taleb plows through human illusions, contrasting the classical values of courage, elegance, and erudition against the modern diseases of nerdiness, philistinism, and phoniness. “Taleb’s crystalline nuggets of thought stand alone like esoteric poems.”—Financial Times From the Trade Paperback edition.
Category: Business & Economics

Antifragile

Author : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
ISBN : 9780812979688
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 37.97 MB
Format : PDF, Kindle
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Shares insights into how adversity can bring out the best in individuals and communities, drawing on multiple disciplines to consider such topics as the superiority of city states over nation states and the drawbacks of debt.
Category: Business & Economics

Incerto

Author : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
ISBN : 9780399590450
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 20.40 MB
Format : PDF, ePub, Docs
Download : 728
Read : 1071

Nassim Nicholas Taleb's landmark Incerto series is an investigation of luck, uncertainty, probability, opacity, human error, risk, disorder, and decision-making in a world we don't understand, in nonoverlapping and standalone books. All four volumes--Antifragile, The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, and the expanded edition of The Bed of Procrustes, updated with more than 50 percent new material--are now together in one boxed set. ANTIFRAGILE "Startling . . . richly crammed with insights, stories, fine phrases and intriguing asides."--The Wall Street Journal Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, many things in life benefit from disorder, volatility, and turmoil. What Taleb has identified and calls "antifragile" is that category of things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better and better. What is crucial is that the antifragile loves errors, as it incurs small harm and large benefits from them. Spanning politics, urban planning, war, personal finance, economic systems, and medicine in an interdisciplinary and erudite style, Antifragile is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world. THE BLACK SWAN "[A book] that altered modern thinking."--The Times (London) A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictab≤ it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random and more predictable. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows that black swan events underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives, and yet we--especially the experts--are blind to them. FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS "[Fooled by Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther's ninety-five theses were to the Catholic Church."--Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? Fooled by Randomness is about luck: more precisely, about how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill--the markets--Fooled by Randomness is an irreverent, eye-opening, and endlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understood forces in our lives. THE BED OF PROCRUSTES "Taleb's crystalline nuggets of thought stand alone like esoteric poems."--Financial Times This collection of aphorisms and meditations expresses Taleb's major ideas in ways you least expect. The Bed of Procrustes takes its title from Greek mythology: the story of a man who made his visitors fit his bed to perfection by either stretching them or cutting their limbs. With a rare combination of pointed wit and potent wisdom, Taleb plows through human illusions, contrasting the classical views of courage, elegance, and erudition against the modern diseases of nerdiness, philistinism, and phoniness.
Category: Business & Economics

Skin In The Game

Author : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
ISBN : 9780241247488
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 53.28 MB
Format : PDF, Mobi
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The bestselling author of The Black Swan and 'the hottest thinker in the world' (Sunday Times) is back with a book challenging many of our long-held beliefs about risk, reward, politics, religion and finance How can a stubborn minority easily end up ruling? Should you take advice from a salesperson? Is the pope atheist? More than the foundation of risk management, skin in the game is an astonishingly complex worldview that, as Nassim Nicholas Taleb shows in this provocative book, applies to all aspects of our lives and drives history. In his inimitable style, he draws on everything from Antaeus the Giant to Donald Trump to Seneca to the ethics of disagreement to how to buy a used car, to create a jaw-dropping tapestry for understanding this idea in a brand new way. Full of philosophical tales and practical stories, Skin in the Game offers a key rule to live by: do not do to others what you don't want them to do to you, with its practical extension: never take advice from someone who gives advice for a living.
Category: Business & Economics

The Black Swan Second Edition

Author : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
ISBN : 0679604189
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 51.71 MB
Format : PDF, Kindle
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The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, and The Bed of Procrustes. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.” For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility,” which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan. Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb “The most prophetic voice of all.”—GQ Praise for The Black Swan “[A book] that altered modern thinking.”—The Times (London) “A masterpiece.”—Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail “Idiosyncratically brilliant.”—Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times “The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.”—Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate “[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.”—The Wall Street Journal “Hugely enjoyable—compelling . . . easy to dip into.”—Financial Times “Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.”—The New York Times Book Review From the Hardcover edition.
Category: Business & Economics

Dynamic Hedging

Author : Nassim Taleb
ISBN : 0471152803
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 27.67 MB
Format : PDF, ePub, Mobi
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Dynamic Hedging is the definitive source on derivatives risk. Itprovides a real–world methodology for managing portfolioscontaining any nonlinear security. It presents risks from thevantage point of the option market maker and arbitrage operator.The only book about derivatives risk written by an experiencedtrader with theoretical training, it remolds option theory to fitthe practitioner′s environment. As a larger share of marketexposure cannot be properly captured by mathematical models, notedoption arbitrageur Nassim Taleb uniquely covers both on–model andoff–model derivatives risks. The author discusses, in plain English, vital issues,including: The generalized option, which encompasses all instruments withconvex payoff, including a trader′s potential bonus. The techniques for trading exotic options, including binary,barrier, multiasset, and Asian options, as well as methods to takeinto account the wrinkles of actual, non–bellshapeddistributions. Market dynamics viewed from the practitioner′s vantage point,including liquidity holes, portfolio insurance, squeezes, fattails, volatility surface, GARCH, curve evolution, static optionreplication, correlation instability, Pareto–Levy, regime shifts,autocorrelation of price changes, and the severe flaws in the valueat risk method. New tools to detect risks, such as higher moment analysis,topography exposure, and nonparametric techniques. The path dependence of all options hedged dynamically. Dynamic Hedging is replete with helpful tools, market anecdotes,at–a–glance risk management rules distilling years of market lore,and important definitions. The book contains modules in which thefundamental mathematics of derivatives, such as the Brownianmotion, Ito′s lemma, the numeraire paradox, the Girsanov change ofmeasure, and the Feynman–Kac solution are presented in intuitivepractitioner′s language. Dynamic Hedging is an indispensable and definitive reference formarket makers, academics, finance students, risk managers, andregulators. The definitive book on options trading and risk management "If pricing is a science and hedging is an art, Taleb is avirtuoso." –Bruno Dupire, Head of Swaps and Options Research,Paribas Capital Markets "This is not merely the best book on how options trade, it isthe only book." –Stan Jonas, Managing Director, FIMAT–SocietyGARCH "Dynamic Hedging bridges the gap between what the besttraders know and what the best scholars can prove." –WilliamMargrabe, President, The William Margrabe Group, Inc. "The most comprehensive, insightful, intuitive work on thesubject. It is instrumental for both beginning and experiencedtraders."– "A tour de force. That rare find, a book of great practical andtheoretical value. Taleb successfully bridges the gap between theacademic and the real world. Interesting, provocative, wellwritten. Each chapter worth a fortune to any current or prospectivederivatives trader."–Victor Niederhoffer, Chairman, NiederhofferInvestments
Category: Business & Economics

Quantitative Value Web Site

Author : Wesley R. Gray
ISBN : 9781118328071
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 66.38 MB
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Legendary investment gurus Warren Buffett and Ed Thorp represent different ends of the investing spectrum: one a value investor, the other a quant. While Buffett and Thorp have conflicting philosophical approaches, they agree that the market is beatable. In Quantitative Value, Wesley Gray and Tobias Carlisle take the best aspects from the disciplines of value investing and quantitative investing and apply them to a completely unique and winning approach to stock selection. As the authors explain, the quantitative value strategy offers a superior way to invest: capturing the benefits of a value investing philosophy without the behavioral errors associated with "stock picking." To demystify their innovative approach, Gray and Carlisle outline the framework for quantitative value investing, including the four key elements of the investment process: How to avoid stocks that can cause a permanent loss of capital: Learn how to uncover financial statement manipulation, fraud, and financial distress How to find stocks with the highest quality: Discover how to find strong economic franchises and robust financial strength. Gray and Carlisle look at long-term returns on capital and assets, free cash flow, and a variety of metrics related to margins and general financial strength The secret to finding deeply undervalued stocks: Does the price-to-earnings ratio find undervalued stocks better than free cash flow? Gray and Carlisle examine the historical data on over 50 valuation ratios, including some unusual metrics, rare multi-year averages, and uncommon combinations The five signals sent by smart money: The book uncovers the signals sent by insiders, short sellers, shareholder activists, and institutional investment managers After detailing the quantitative value investment process, Gray and Carlisle conduct a historical test of the resulting quantitative value model. Their conclusions are surprising and counterintuitive. This reliable resource includes a companion website that offers a monthly-updated screening tool to find stocks using the model outlined in the book, an updated back-testing tool, and a blog about recent developments in quantitative value investing. For any investor who wants to make the most of their time in today's complex marketplace, they should look no further than Quantitative Value.
Category: Business & Economics

The Lords Of Creation

Author : Frederick Lewis Allen
ISBN : 9781497622647
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 45.45 MB
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A look at America in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, and the capitalists who changed the world—setting the stage for the most devastating global financial collapse in history—from “a diligent and perceptive reporter” (Forbes). In the decades following the Civil War, America entered an era of unprecedented corporate expansion, with ultimate financial power in the hands of a few wealthy industrialists who exploited the system for everything it was worth. The Rockefellers, Fords, Morgans, and Vanderbilts were the “lords of creation” who, along with like-minded magnates, controlled the economic destiny of the country, unrestrained by regulations or moral imperatives. Through a combination of foresight, ingenuity, ruthlessness, and greed, America’s giants of industry remolded the US economy in their own image. They established their power and authority, ensuring that they—and they alone—would control the means of production, transportation, energy, and commerce—creating the conditions for the stock market collapse of 1929 and the Great Depression that followed. As modern society continues to be affected by wealth inequality and cycles of boom and bust, it’s as important as ever to understand the origins of financial disaster, and the policies, practices, and people who bring them on. The Lords of Creation, first published when the catastrophe of the 1930s was still painfully fresh, is a fascinating story of bankers, railroad tycoons, steel magnates, speculators, scoundrels, and robber barons. It is a tale of innovation and shocking exploitation—and a sobering reminder that history can indeed repeat itself.
Category: Business & Economics